"This election is big. It is simply enormous," Hill said during a visit to this U.S. base near the north-central city of Tikrit. "If this goes well … and if the government formation goes well, this could usher in a whole new beginning for this country and also U.S. relations with Iraq."
USA TODAY accompanied Hill as he visited U.S. Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) stationed in six Iraqi cities on Saturday, just one day ahead of the national election to choose 325 Parliament members.
The ambassador delivered a cautiously optimistic message at each stop on his tour, which took him from the southern city of Najaf to the northern city of Mosul.
About an hour before he arrived at a U.S.-Iraqi outpost in Najaf, a car bomb exploded near the Shiite Imam Ali shrine, killing three and wounding dozens more. Hill said the bomb detonated between two buses carrying Iranian pilgrims visiting the shrine, considered the holiest of religious places to the Shiite faithful.
The bombing was the latest attack in a spate of violence in the run-up to elections. The U.S. military says that Iraqi civilians killed in violence jumped by 44% last month, but that the level of violence still remains near the lowest levels since 2003.
On Friday, al-Qaeda in Iraq also declared a countrywide "curfew" during the hours of the election, according to SITE, a U.S.-based group that monitors terror groups.
The al-Qaeda message warned that anyone who broke the curfew would "expose himself to the anger of Allah and then to all kinds of weapons of the mujahedeen," or Islamic holy warriors.
Hill said embassy-sponsored polling indicates about 55% of Iraq's 18.9 million register voters will go to the polls. In the six cities that Hill visited, U.S. provincial council teams reported that 63% to 80% of Iraqi troops and police registered for early voting cast ballots on Thursday.
PRT members based in Karbala and Babil provinces said the Iraqi government's controversial decision to ban more than 400 candidates from participating in the election because of purported ties to Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath Party may motivate some disaffected Shiite voters to head to the polls.
A majority of the candidates barred were Shiites, but the most prominent of the banned candidates were Sunni.
"About a month ago, the mood here was kind of sour," said John Kincannon, the PRT leader for the southern city of Karbala. "With the de-Baathification process a lot of people got spun up here. We're seeing a lot of enthusiasm" for the election.
Top administration officials will be closely watching Sunday's vote, which is considered a watershed moment ahead of the U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq. President Obama says he will pull out all but 50,000 American troops by the end of August. The remaining troops must leave Iraq by the end of 2011 under the U.S.-Iraqi security agreement.
Candidates have already started accusing each other of election violations. On Friday, the coalition headed by former prime minister Ayad Allawi claimed that members of the bloc were being harassed and detained.
"If the violations continue and we find they've reached a serious level, we'll take appropriate actions," Allawi said. "We can't accept the confiscation of the Iraqi voice."
Hill said a legitimate election and a smooth transition of power could help ease tensions and is essential to rebuilding Iraq's stunted economy. Iraq holds the third-biggest oil reserve in the world, but only has the capacity to produces about 2.4 million barrels of oil per day.
In order to improve the oil sector, which accounts for more than 90% of the Iraqi economy, foreign investment is essential. That investment won't come until Iraq proves it has political stability, Hill said.
"Within 10 years, if the political situation calms, they'll be pumping 10 million barrels per day," Hill said. "But the oil sector is not going to work unless the political situation changes."