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Iraq's intractable security dilemma

By Jonathan Marcus
BBC Diplomatic correspondent

The scale and ferocity of Thursday's attacks in Sadr City adds to the daily litany of violence in a country where the statistics of murder and mayhem appear to break new records at disturbingly regular intervals.

 

These blasts come in the wake of an announcement from the United Nations that, according to its figures, more Iraqi civilians - some 3,709 people - were killed in October than in any other month since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

The latest bombings highlight the reality on the ground in the country which risks being forgotten amid all of the talk about the Iraq Study Group and other US efforts to re-cast American policy in the region.

It will give ammunition to those who argue that there are no good options available.

More not less?

But it will also, paradoxically, add some weight to those who argue that a rapid US withdrawal is not the answer.

 

Most experts believe that the immediate response to any significant reduction in the US military presence would be a massive upsurge in violence.

This is what happened in Falluja and Mosul in 2004, and in Baghdad earlier this year.

That is why, amid all the talk of exit strategies, there are some - not least in the Pentagon - who are wondering if, in the short-term, more US troops may be needed.

This option - that of at least trying to bring order and stability to the Iraqi capital - is one of the ideas in play.

But, as Thursday's bombings demonstrate, even the Shia-militia dominated area of Sadr City remains highly vulnerable to attack.

Large numbers of additional American troops, even if forthcoming, may not be able to do any more than simply shift the focus of the violence elsewhere.

So, amid the worsening chaos is there perhaps a diplomatic way out?

This coming weekend sees a flurry of comings and goings.

Change

The US Vice President Dick Cheney is expected to be heading to Saudi Arabia.

The Iraqi President Jalal Talabani is to hold a summit in Tehran with his Iranian counterpart at which, it is rumoured, the Syrian President Bashar al Assad may also be present. Change is in the air and all the regional players are jostling for position.

 

  Some pundits argue that Washington must engage with Syria and Iran if there is to be any chance of lasting stability in Iraq

But, as the assassination of the Lebanese Christian leader Pierre Gemayel demonstrates all too clearly, the region's problems are complex and interlinked.

Many are already pointing the finger at Syria as being ultimately responsible for this killing.

The Syrians, of course, deny any involvement though many Lebanese analysts see its consequences as largely serving Syrian interests.

Some pundits argue that Washington must engage with Syria and Iran if there is to be any chance of lasting stability in Iraq.

But Damascus and Tehran have their own interests at heart and may wish to exact a diplomatic price, say in Lebanon, that Washington is unwilling to pay.

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